Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of BeliefIn the mid-eighteenth century David Hume argued that successful prediction tells us nothing about the truth of the predicting theory. But physical theory routinely predicts the values of observable magnitudes within very small ranges of error. The chance of this sort of predictive success without a true theory suggests that Hume's argument is flawed. However, Colin Howson argues that there is no flaw and examines the implications of this disturbing conclusion; he also offers a solution to one of the central problems of Western philosophy, the problem of induction. |
Contents
INTRODUCTION | 1 |
1 HUMES ARGUMENT | 6 |
2 RELIABILISM | 22 |
3 REALISM AND THE NOMIRACLES ARGUMENT | 35 |
4 PROBABILISM | 61 |
5 DEDUCTIVISM | 94 |
6 THE NATURALISTIC FALLACY | 109 |
7 A NEW SPECIES OF LOGIC | 121 |
8 THE LOGIC OF SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY | 168 |
9 CHANCE AND PROBABILITY | 221 |
FINALE | 239 |
OF MIRACLES | 241 |
| 247 | |
| 257 | |
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Common terms and phrases
accept actually alternative answer assigned assumed assumption Bayes factor Bayes's Bayesian model Bayesian probability Bayesian theory called chance distribution Chapter claim conditional probability conditionalization consistent constraints context course deductive logic defined definition degree of belief denumerably determine discussion Dutch Book emeralds empirical entails epistemic epistemic probability equal evaluation evidence example experiment explanation fact false Fisher follows formal frequency given grue Hence Howson Hume Hume's argument Hume's Problem Humean I–III inconsistent independent inductive inferences inductive reasoning infinity intuitively justified large numbers logical truth mathematical merely modus ponens natural No-Miracles argument null hypothesis objection observed outcomes paradox Popper possible posterior probability predictions premisses principle of indifference prior probability probabilistic probability axioms probability calculus probability function problem of induction propositions question random rational regarded reliable result rule scientific seems sense sentences simple sound inductive statement Suppose theorem truth-values